Recent analysis of shotgun patterning and game bird data suggests that long-range shotgun performance is less effective than is sometimes assumed, despite advancements (e.g., plastic shells, gas-tight wads). The focus is on achieving a 95% sure-kill rate, defined as consistent clean kills if possible.

• Sure-Kill Ranges (Full Choke, 72% Pattern at 40 Yards):

• Geese: 10-gauge Magnum, 2 oz No. 2 shot – 51 yards.

• Mallards: 2 oz No. 4 shot – 48 yards; No. 6 shot – 40 yards (2 oz), 40 yards (1½ oz), 33 yards (1¼ oz).

• Teal: No. 6 shot – 48 yards (2 oz), 40 yards (1½ oz).

• Beyond these ranges, kills become unreliable within a 30-inch pattern. Exceptional shooters centering the densest pattern (15–20-inch core) may gain ~5 yards.

Key Limitations:

• Pellet Energy: In full-choke guns, energy loss limits range before pattern density falters. At longer distances, >4–5 pellets are needed for sufficient kill energy.

• Shot Size: No. 4–5 shot optimizes mallards; No. 6 suits teal, especially with 1½–2 oz loads. Lighter 1¼ oz loads under perform for teal.

• Pattern Density: Peaks at the center (e.g., 0.7 pellets/sq. in. in 10-inch circle vs. 0.3 in outer ring for 1¼ oz No. 6 at 40 yards).

Waterfowl Behavior:

• Puddlers (e.g., Mallards): Slow, high fliers; circle cautiously, descend vertically. Blinds in cover may push them higher (e.g., 50 yards above trees).

• Divers (e.g., Canvasbacks): Fast (70+ mph), low fliers; need open decoy spreads for jet-like landings.

• Adaptation: Hunting pressure elevates flight paths; scouting consistent routes boosts success.

Shooting Strategy:

• Gear: Full-choke barrels for 40+ yard shots; double-barrels (full + modified) with selective triggers handle varied targets.

• Technique: Swing with bird speed, lead ahead, follow through. Wind lowers flight altitude, aiding range estimation.

• Challenges: Range and speed judgment varies with light, background, and species traits.

The Data we reviewed debunks myths of 60–70 yard kills (e.g., Elmer Keith’s 10-gauge claims). Pellet energy and precision, not pattern alone, dictate effective range. Shotguns excel within 50 yards; beyond that, success hinges on skill and luck.